October is when we learn whether the fall market has real momentum. This year, Victoria and the rest of Vancouver Island told slightly different stories, and the Bank of Canada made its first rate change in a while. Here’s what the numbers say, board by board, and what they mean if you’re thinking of buying or selling around Shawnigan Lake and the Cowichan Valley.
The big picture: more choice, steady prices
Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB), October 2026
Sales: 573 properties sold. That's down 7.1% from 617 in October 2025, but up 23.8% from September.
Active listings: 3,594 at month-end, up 5% from 3,423 a year ago.
Benchmark prices (Greater Victoria Area): single family $1,146,100 (down 0.2% from October 2025), townhouse $766,900 (down 1.5%), condo $535,600 (down 2.2%).
Closer to us: VREB's Malahat & Area, which covers Shawnigan Lake, Mill Bay and Cobble Hill, had 13 single-family sales in October.
VREB Chair Fergus Kyne said September's data showed a buyer's market for the first time in years, and that October's balanced results "are a reminder that market conditions can shift materially from month to month."
Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB), October 2026
Sales: 582 units across all property types, down 9% from October 2025. Single-family sales (excluding acreage and waterfront) were 298, down 4%.
Active listings: 4,173, up 9% from a year ago.
Benchmark prices (Vancouver Island): single family $780,400 (down 0.6% from October 2025), townhouse $579,800 (up 6%), condo $400,000 (down 3.1%).
Cowichan Valley: 46 single-family sales, compared with 51 a year ago. The average sale price was $811,592, up 0.8%. (That's an average price, not the benchmark.)
Interest rates
On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point, to 2.50%. It hadn't moved the rate in several decisions. The Bank pointed to high energy prices and the risk that they push up the cost of other goods and services; headline inflation was 3.1% in September. It said it will "proceed carefully" and that further increases may be needed. The next decision is December 9.
If you have a variable-rate mortgage or a line of credit, your payments will likely rise once your lender's prime rate follows. If you're planning to buy in the next few months, now is a good time to talk to your lender about a pre-approval with a rate hold.
What this means for you
If you're buying: You have more to choose from than a year ago on both boards, and in Victoria, townhouse listings are up 44.8%. Most benchmark prices are within a few percent of last year, so there's room to take your time, compare and negotiate. The exception is Vancouver Island townhouses, where VIREB's benchmark is up 6%. Just get your financing lined up first, because rates are moving again.
If you're selling: Buyers have options, so pricing and presentation matter more than they did a few years ago. Homes priced right for their area are still selling. As the VREB chair put it, "Some areas may continue to favour buyers, even when the broader market is more balanced." Local advice makes the difference.
Thinking about a move around Shawnigan Lake, Mill Bay, Cobble Hill or the Cowichan Valley? Give me a call at 778-678-7403 or email ryinnes.realtor@outlook.com. I'm happy to talk through what these numbers mean for your home. Request a free home evaluation, or explore my neighbourhood guides for Shawnigan Lake, Cobble Hill, Mill Bay, Arbutus Ridge and Cowichan Bay.
Ry Innes PREC*, REALTOR®
Sources: Victoria Real Estate Board October 2026 news release and statistics (released November 2, 2026); Vancouver Island Real Estate Board October 2026 statistics; Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026. MLS® property information is copyright of the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board and the Victoria Real Estate Board, and should be independently verified before you rely on it.
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