Real Estate Blog & Market Updates

October is when we learn whether the fall market has real momentum. This year, Victoria and the rest of Vancouver Island told slightly different stories, and the Bank of Canada made its first rate change in a while. Here’s what the numbers say, board by board, and what they mean if you’re thinking of buying or selling around Shawnigan Lake and the Cowichan Valley.

The big picture: more choice, steady prices

Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB), October 2026

• Sales: 573 properties sold. That's down 7.1% from 617 in October 2025, but up 23.8% from September.

• Active listings: 3,594 at month-end, up 5% from 3,423 a year ago.

• Benchmark prices (Greater Victoria Area): single family $1,146,100 (down 0.2% from October 2025), townhouse $766,900 (down 1.5%), condo $535,600 (down 2.2%).

• Closer to us: VREB's Malahat & Area, which covers Shawnigan Lake, Mill Bay and Cobble Hill, had 13 single-family sales in October.

VREB Chair Fergus Kyne said September's data showed a buyer's market for the first time in years, and that October's balanced results "are a reminder that market conditions can shift materially from month to month."

Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB), October 2026

• Sales: 582 units across all property types, down 9% from October 2025. Single-family sales (excluding acreage and waterfront) were 298, down 4%.

• Active listings: 4,173, up 9% from a year ago.

• Benchmark prices (Vancouver Island): single family $780,400 (down 0.6% from October 2025), townhouse $579,800 (up 6%), condo $400,000 (down 3.1%).

• Cowichan Valley: 46 single-family sales, compared with 51 a year ago. The average sale price was $811,592, up 0.8%. (That's an average price, not the benchmark.)

Interest rates

On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point, to 2.50%. It hadn't moved the rate in several decisions. The Bank pointed to high energy prices and the risk that they push up the cost of other goods and services; headline inflation was 3.1% in September. It said it will "proceed carefully" and that further increases may be needed. The next decision is December 9.

If you have a variable-rate mortgage or a line of credit, your payments will likely rise once your lender's prime rate follows. If you're planning to buy in the next few months, now is a good time to talk to your lender about a pre-approval with a rate hold.

What this means for you

If you're buying: You have more to choose from than a year ago on both boards, and in Victoria, townhouse listings are up 44.8%. Most benchmark prices are within a few percent of last year, so there's room to take your time, compare and negotiate. The exception is Vancouver Island townhouses, where VIREB's benchmark is up 6%. Just get your financing lined up first, because rates are moving again.

If you're selling: Buyers have options, so pricing and presentation matter more than they did a few years ago. Homes priced right for their area are still selling. As the VREB chair put it, "Some areas may continue to favour buyers, even when the broader market is more balanced." Local advice makes the difference.

Thinking about a move around Shawnigan Lake, Mill Bay, Cobble Hill or the Cowichan Valley? Give me a call at 778-678-7403 or email ryinnes.realtor@outlook.com. I'm happy to talk through what these numbers mean for your home. Request a free home evaluation, or explore my neighbourhood guides for Shawnigan Lake, Cobble Hill, Mill Bay, Arbutus Ridge and Cowichan Bay.

Ry Innes PREC*, REALTOR®

Sources: Victoria Real Estate Board October 2026 news release and statistics (released November 2, 2026); Vancouver Island Real Estate Board October 2026 statistics; Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026. MLS® property information is copyright of the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board and the Victoria Real Estate Board, and should be independently verified before you rely on it.

Lakefront is one of my favourite parts of this job. There's nothing like a morning coffee on the dock at Shawnigan Lake or a summer evening on Cowichan Lake. But a waterfront home comes with questions a regular house doesn't. Here are the ones I walk every lakefront buyer through.

Shawnigan Lake or Cowichan Lake: which fits you?

Shawnigan Lake is close to the village, schools and the highway, so a lot of my buyers there live on the lake year-round and commute. Cowichan Lake is bigger and quieter, with communities like Lake Cowichan, Youbou and Honeymoon Bay, and a mix of full-time homes and weekend cabins. Both are beautiful. The right one depends on how you'll use it and how far you're willing to drive.

How is the home's septic system?

Most lakefront homes here aren't on a city sewer. Ask how old the system is, when it was last pumped and inspected, and whether there are records. A septic inspection is one of the best investments you can make in your due diligence.

Where does the water come from?

Some lakefront homes draw water straight from the lake, while others are on a well or a community system. In BC, taking water from a lake for your home generally needs a provincial water licence. Ask whether there is one and whether it transfers to you, and test the water before you buy.

Can I keep (or build) a dock?

The land under the lake usually belongs to the province, not the homeowner. An existing dock may or may not have the right approvals, and adding or changing one has its own rules. Ask the seller what paperwork they have.

What can I build or renovate near the water?

There are setbacks for building close to a lake, and the local rules depend on where the property is. I'd always check with the Cowichan Valley Regional District or the town before you count on adding a garage, a suite or a bigger deck. This is where my construction background really helps. I can spot what's realistic before you fall in love with a plan.

Can I clear trees or landscape near the water?

The land along the shoreline is often a protected area, and that matters even if you're not planning to build anything. There can be limits on cutting trees, clearing brush or removing plants close to the water, and some work needs a permit first. The rules depend on where the property is, so check with the Cowichan Valley Regional District or the town before you trim, clear or landscape near the lake. It's also worth asking the seller whether any work has been done near the shore, and whether it was approved.

What about access in winter?

Many lakefront lots sit on steep driveways or narrow roads. Visit in the rain, and ask the seller how the road and driveway handle a cold snap.

Any surprises with insurance?

Waterfront homes can cost more to insure, and some older systems (wood stoves, older wiring) affect quotes. Get an insurance quote early, before your conditions come off.

Thinking about lakefront?

My office is right in Shawnigan Lake Village, and I've helped clients across both lakes. If you'd like to talk through a property, or just get a feel for what's out there, call or text me at 778-678-7403.

See current lakefront listings · About Shawnigan Lake

Every month I go through the numbers so you don’t have to. Here’s what September looked like for those of us in the Cowichan Valley and the Malahat, and what it means if you’re thinking of buying or selling.

The big picture: buyers have more room to breathe

The Vancouver Island Real Estate Board says the region has moved into a buyers' market. In plain terms, there are more homes to choose from and buyers are taking their time.

• Sales: 562 homes sold across the board's area in September, 13% fewer than last September.

• Listings: 4,457 homes were on the market, up 4% from a year ago.

• Prices: the benchmark price for a single-family home was $777,300, down 1% from a year ago. That's steady, not a slide.

Interest rates

On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by a quarter point, from 2.25% to 2.5%. It's the first change since October 2025. The Bank said inflation is running higher than it expected, partly because of high energy prices. It also said more increases are possible, but it plans to move carefully. The next decision is December 9.

What does that mean here? If you have a variable-rate mortgage or a line of credit, your costs will likely go up a little. Fixed mortgage rates follow the bond market more than this decision, but if you're planning to buy in the next few months, it's a good time to talk to your lender or mortgage broker about a pre-approval with a rate hold.

What this means for you

If you're buying: you have more choice than you've had in a while, and more time to make a careful decision. It's a good moment to get pre-approved and look closely at the homes that fit.

If you're selling: pricing it right from day one matters more than ever. Homes that are priced well and show well are still selling. Overpriced ones are sitting.

Every neighbourhood moves a bit differently, and lakefront, acreage and Arbutus Ridge each have their own rhythm. If you want to know what's happening on your street, call or text me at 778-678-7403, or get a free home evaluation.

Explore the area: Shawnigan Lake · Cobble Hill · Mill Bay · Arbutus Ridge · Cowichan Bay